Roc Armenter

Executive Vice President and Economist, FRB Philadelphia

Visiting Scholar, Wharton School - Finance

Areas of Expertise

Monetary Policy Macroeconomics Finance Machine Learning

rocarm@wharton.upenn.edu

After more than two decades at the Federal Reserve, I have a unique record of excellence in research, demonstrated policy contributions, and extensive experience as manager and executive leader. I am currently visiting Wharton finance and looking forward to the next chapter.

I am most proud of my contributions to monetary policy over the years, as senior policy advisor and FOMC economist, and of my role in the design of balance sheet policies and the implementation framework. My research has been published in a variety of top journals in economics, with interests ranging from fiscal and monetary policy to information theory.

Few things bring me as much joy as writing: I have given myself permission to vibe blog in Substack, sharing thoughts and insights on economics, policy, and other topics; while freely experimenting with style and format.

I have a Ph.D. in economics from Northwestern University and an M.Sc. and a B.A. in economics from the Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

Publications

Geometric Methods for Finite Rational Inattention

with Michèle Müller-Itten and Zach Stangebye

Quantitative Economics, 15(1), pp. 115-144, 2024

→ Codes (solve finite RI models, quickly!)

A Model of the Federal Funds Market: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow

with Gara Afonso and Ben Lester

Review of Economic Dynamics, 33, pp. 177-204, 2019

→ Working paper version → Liberty Street Blog

The Perils of Nominal Targets

Review of Economic Studies, 85(1), pp. 50-86, 2018

→ Older version (WP 14-2/R)

Taxes and Capital Structure: Understanding Firms' Savings

with Viktoria Hnatkovska

Journal of Monetary Economics, 87, pp. 13-33, 2017

→ 2013 version → WP 12-1 → Online Appendix

Excess Reserves and Monetary Policy Implementation

with Ben Lester

Review of Economic Dynamics, 23, pp. 212-235, 2017

→ Older version (WP 15-35)

A Balls-and-Bins Model of Trade: Reply

with Miklós Koren

American Economic Review, 106(3), pp. 852-854, 2016

Sustainable Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations

B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 16(2), pp. 301-334, 2016

→ Older version (WP 10-20)

Economies of Scale and the Size of Exporters

with Miklós Koren

Journal of the European Economic Association, 13(3), pp. 482-511, 2015

→ Online Appendix

A Balls-and-Bins Model of Trade

with Miklós Koren

American Economic Review, 104(7), pp. 2127-2151, 2014

→ Online appendix → Codes and data links

Fraud Deterrence in Dynamic Mirrleesian Economies

with Thomas M. Mertens

Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(2), pp. 139-151, 2013

Intertemporal Distortions in the Second Best

with Stefania Albanesi

Review of Economic Studies, 79(4), pp. 1271-1307, 2012

Accounting for Development through Investment Prices

with Amartya Lahiri

Journal of Monetary Economics, 59(6), pp. 550-564, 2012

Credible Redistribution Policy and Skilled Migration

with Francesc Ortega

European Economic Review, 55(2), pp. 228-245, 2011

Credible Redistributive Policies and Migration Across U.S. States

with Francesc Ortega

Review of Economic Dynamics, 13(2), pp. 403-423, 2010

Of Nutters and Doves

with Martin Bodenstein

The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 9(1), art. 35, 2009

A Note on Incomplete Factor Taxation

Journal of Public Economics, 92, pp. 2275-2281, 2008

A General Theory (and Some Evidence) of Expectation Traps in Monetary Policy

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(5), pp. 867-895, 2008

Can the U.S. Monetary Policy Fall (Again) in an Expectation Trap?

with Martin Bodenstein

Macroeconomic Dynamics, 12, pp. 664-693, 2008

Time-Consistent Fiscal Policy and Heterogeneous Agents

Review of Economic Dynamics, 10, pp. 31-54, 2007

Equilibrium Selection Through Incomplete Information in Coordination Games: An Experimental Study

with Antonio Cabrales and Rosemarie Nagel

Experimental Economics, 10, pp. 221-234, 2007

Other Publications

"A Bit of a Miracle No More: The Decline of the Labor Share"

FRB Philadelphia Business Review, Third Quarter 2015

"Does the U.S. Trade More Widely Than It Appears?"

FRB Philadelphia Business Review, First Quarter 2014

"The Rise of Corporate Savings"

FRB Philadelphia Business Review, Third Quarter 2012

"Output Gaps: Uses and Limitations"

FRB Philadelphia Business Review, First Quarter 2011

Selected Events

9th Short-Term Funding Markets Conference, “Monetary Policy Transmission with Endogenous Reserve Supply” (Ethan Cohen and coauthors, 2026), Discussant, Board of Governors, May 29, 2026.

Miami Macro 2026, “The Dynamics of Ample Reserves and the Size of the Fed’s Balance Sheet,” Plenary Speaker, University of Miami – Herbert Business School, April 24, 2026.

FRBSF Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference, “Fluctuations in the TGA and Their Effect on the Fed’s Balance Sheet” (Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2026), Discussant, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, March 27, 2026.

Allied Social Science Associations (ASSA) Annual Meeting, “Tariffs and Free Trade Agreements,” Chair, Philadelphia, PA, January 3, 2026.

National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, “Consumer Spending during Inflation 2.0,” Chair, Philadelphia, PA, October 14, 2026.

Wharton Liquidity Conference, “Bank Balance Sheets and Liquidity,” Session Chair, Wharton, 2024.

BEAR Conference, “Managing the Central Bank’s Balance Sheet in a Period of Quantitative Tightening,” Panelist, Bank of England, February 24, 2025.

Annual State of the Economy, Panelist, Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia, 2025.

Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Participant, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2024–2025.

Roc Armenter

Areas of Expertise

Publications

Equilibrium Selection Through Incomplete Information in Coordination Games: An Experimental Study

Other Publications

Working Papers

Short Notes

Writing

Selected Events

Links